Be Greedy right now

How should i start. Lets fast forward 4-5 years and see in hindsight.You don't make extra ordinary gains in bull markets but in when you buy in bear markets. What would happen in the markets. A very famous investor once taught me(on a youtube video). There are 28 floors on the Bombay sensex building and... Continue Reading →

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Layers of hubris and folly

So lets start right away. Suppose you have identified a great company which makes a great product. The company itself owns a lot of shares and roce is over 20% and roe is about the same. Now market is going down by the day. Here is an example of XYZ corp Price Rs 50 Eps... Continue Reading →

Let the ball come to you

The hardest thing in life and investing is waiting. Some people just cannot wait and that is where the oppurtunity lies. The more volatile it gets the more better it is. The rule is not to let emotions rule you, rather opposite. What i mean by that is be greedy when others are fearful and... Continue Reading →

Uncertainty

Do you remember that time when you were in high school and you asked a girl out. She did not say Yes, She did not say No. If you remember that feeling, it sinks you,drains you and finally you do something stupid. Fast forward 20 years and you think we have changed, not a lot.... Continue Reading →

Zig and Zag

Markets are getting volatile. In January 2018 the markets were getting wild and I was getting worried that is it going into bubble territory. Now the mayhem has ended to the other direction. In mid and small cap the prices are cheap and discounts are available. If anyone has patience and reasonable intellect he can... Continue Reading →

Arrogance and Humility

Whole act of investing is put up in the header. When you are buying a stock it is a pure act of arrogance. When you are buying a stock at say 300 and it goes 200, you buy even more(as much as your pocket allows) and in my view buying a stock is a pure... Continue Reading →

Probabilities, Poker, and Value investing

Berkshirepupil

There is a concept in life that says you have to grab big opportunities, because they don’t come around often. Anyone one of you who has played poker(it’s okay even if you have not) know the probability of a royal flush is 649379:1(.000154%), Straight flush is 72192:1(.0015%), four of a kind is 4164:1(.0256%). Now if you look closely into the probabilities,poker and value investing it is the hands you have to say NO to. As a investor/analyst your primary job is look at the scene and say no its too close, there is not enough margin of safety,its too hard or am not capable of analyzing this. Now if you look at the example above your probability of getting a royal flush is .000154%, that means if you play poker out of 649739 hands you will get this hand once. If you look closely the other 99.999846% times you have…

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